Nate Silver predicts our next President – by keeping a running forecast

If you haven’t heard of Nate Silver then you are in for a ride. Nate is very, very famous in two distinct areas, baseball and politics, for his ability to predict things.

For baseball he developed, PECOTA, a system for predicting future performance of baseball players, and sold it to Baseball Prospectus in 2003.

From there he moved into politics and went on a run, correctly predicting the winner in 49 out of 50 states for the 2008 presidential election, and all 35 of the Senate races.

That made him some enemies, specifically all those existing pollsters who were proved wrong time and time again.

They still don’t like him, but he is the reigning king of political predictions and now a blogger for the New York Times. Where he maintains a running forecast for the 2012 presidential election.

This screenshot shows the forecasted winner in November:

 

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Labor Stats on Labor Day

In honor of Labor Day I visited a favorite government website, the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

The handbook covers every career in America and discusses interesting things, like day-in-the-life, growth potential, education needed, salary ranges. 

For a young whippersnapper it was perfect. I would browse everything from doctor to trash man to college professor.

Today, I found several images that reflect interesting labor trends in America. Here they are, enjoy, and Happy Labor Day!
 

Ethnicity

 

80%+ of the work force is White, while persons of Hispanic origin are projected to increase, by 2018, their share of the labor force from 14.3 percent to 17.6 percent.

 

 

 Age

 

Largest group of the workforce, 23.3%, are those age 45-54, followed closely by those aged 35-44, 22.7%.

 

 

 New Jobs

 

Most new jobs in America are projected to come from healthcare and scientific/technical professions.

 

 

Fastest Growing Jobs


 

Largest Group of New Jobs

 

Clearly, thousands of jobs, nearly all the jobs, will be healthcare.

 

 

Fastest Decline

 

Bye, bye manufacturing….

 

 

Education

 

Get an associate’s after high school, or a master’s after undergrad and you will be much better off.

 

 

Good Producing Jobs

 

We don’t produce goods anymore, just houses.

 

 

Change in Employment

 

We are definitely becoming more of a service society…not sure that is a good thing.