Make no mistake: the higher the unemployment rate in November 2012, the less likely President Obama is to win a second term. But we should be careful about asserting that there is any particular threshold at which Mr. Obama would go from favorite to underdog, or any magic number at which his re-election would either …
Tag Archives: nate silver
Analyzing female VP’s for Mitt Romney…all disqualified because they support abortion?
A fascinating article by Nate Silver about the potential female candidates for Vice President with Mitt Romney. Is it ironic that most of them are disqualified because they generally support abortions (“mildly pro-choice”). If Mr. Romney wanted to pick a woman this year, whom might he choose? Actually, Mr. Romney has a bit of …
Nate Silver predicts our next President – by keeping a running forecast
If you haven’t heard of Nate Silver then you are in for a ride. Nate is very, very famous in two distinct areas, baseball and politics, for his ability to predict things. For baseball he developed, PECOTA, a system for predicting future performance of baseball players, and sold it to Baseball Prospectus in 2003. From …
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